SIRI closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
SIRI ended the week 1.41% higher at 7.21 after losing $0.02 (-0.28%) today on low volume, underperforming the Nasdaq 100 (0.29%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Trading $0.02 higher after the open, the share was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SIRI as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.05 (0.69%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.10. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for SIRI. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 7.17 and 7.25 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
Despite a strong opening Sirius XM closed below the prior day's open and close, forming a bearish Engulfing Candle. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Tweezer Top. The last time a Tweezer Top showed up on December 23, 2019, SIRI gained 0.71% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 7.19 (S1). After having been unable to move lower than 7.20 in the previous session, the stock found buyers again around the same price level today at 7.20.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 7.30 where further buy stops could get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's high at 7.30, upside momentum might speed up should the market be able to break out to new highs for the year. As prices are trading close to February's low at 7.08, downside momentum could accelerate should SIRI mark new lows for the month.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Down Close Near Low of Period" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Sirius XM. Out of 426 times, SIRI closed higher 58.45% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 59.62% with an average market move of 1.24%.