SFLY declines to lowest close since December 14, 2017

Overview

SFLY finished the week -7.96% lower at 46.01 after losing $1.78 (-3.72%) today on high volume, strongly underperforming the S&P 500 (-2.33%) following today's NFP report. Today's close at 46.01 marks the lowest recorded closing price since December 14, 2017. Closing below Thursday's low at 46.61, Shutterfly confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $1.13 below it intraday.

Daily Candlestick Chart (SFLY as at Dec 07, 2018):

Friday's trading range has been $2.71 (5.68%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of $2.13. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for SFLY.

In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. The last time this happened on August 8th, SFLY lost -1.58% on the following trading day. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.

After having been unable to move above 47.88 in the previous session, the share ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 48.19.

The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.

Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Outside Bar" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Shutterfly. Out of 128 times, SFLY closed higher 52.34% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.91% with an average market move of 1.49%.