RL misses to close above 50-day moving average
Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
RL finished the month -3.96% lower at 72.52 after edging lower $0.05 (-0.07%) today, notably underperforming the S&P 500 (1.54%). Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (RL as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $4.36 (6.05%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of $3.81. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for RL.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Shooting Star.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 70.56 (S1). After spiking up to 75.92 during the day, the stock found resistance at the 50-day moving average at 74.16. The last time this happened on May 20th, RL actually gained 4.44% on the following trading day.
Ralph Lauren shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Bounce off SMA 50" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Ralph Lauren. Out of 38 times, RL closed higher 68.42% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after four trading days, showing a win rate of 65.79% with an average market move of 0.50%.