RL snaps to lowest close since February 4th
Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 15, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 4th day in a row, RL ended the week -1.05% lower at 120.78 after losing $0.75 (-0.62%) today on high volume, notably underperforming the S&P 500 (0.5%). Today's close at 120.78 marks the lowest recorded closing price since February 4th. Trading $1.01 higher after the open, the stock was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (RL as at Mar 15, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $1.94 (1.6%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.26. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for RL.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 121.50 (R1), the market closed below it after spiking up to 122.34 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels importance going forward. When prices bounced off a significant resistance level the last time on March 5th, RL lost -0.62% on the following trading day. After having been unable to move lower than 120.64 in the prior session, the share found buyers again around the same price level today at 120.40.
Ralph Lauren shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Down Close Near Low of Period" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Ralph Lauren. Out of 487 times, RL closed higher 54.41% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.77% with an average market move of 0.77%.