RJF still stuck within tight trading range
Raymond James Financial Inc. (RJF) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
RJF ended the week 6.83% higher at 65.21 after edging higher $0.43 (0.66%) today, slightly outperforming the S&P 500 (0.24%) ahead of tomorrow's Memorial Day market holiday. Trading up to $0.87 lower after the open, the share managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (RJF as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $2.01 (3.1%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.95. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for RJF. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 62.35 and 66.52 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bullish Outside Bar. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top. The last time a Bullish Spinning Top showed up on April 29th, RJF actually lost -7.77% on the following trading day.
After trading as low as 63.91 during the day, Raymond James found support at the 50-day moving average at 64.10. After having been unable to move above 65.74 in the prior session, the market ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 65.92.
The stock shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 66.52 where further buy stops could get triggered. As prices are trading close to May's high at 67.34, upside momentum might speed up should RJF mark new highs for the month.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bullish Bounce off SMA 50" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Raymond James. Out of 36 times, RJF closed higher 58.33% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 69.44% with an average market move of 0.42%.