RGLD closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 02, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, RGLD finished Thursday at 121.05 losing $2.36 (-1.91%) on low volume, notably underperforming the S&P 500 (0.45%) ahead of tomorrow's Independence Day OBS market holiday. Trading $2.02 higher after the open, Royal Gold was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (RGLD as at Jul 02, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been $3.45 (2.82%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $4.53. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for RGLD.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Hikkake Pattern.
After having been unable to move above 123.80 in the previous session, the share ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 124.29. The last time this happened on June 26th, RGLD actually gained 2.41% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 124.84 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 116.33 where further sell stops might get activated.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Down Close Near Low of Period" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Royal Gold. Out of 468 times, RGLD closed higher 55.98% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.06% with an average market move of 0.44%.