RF breaks back below 50-day moving average
Regions Financial Corporation (RF) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
RF ended the week 1.35% higher at 16.54 after losing $0.06 (-0.36%) today, underperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (RF as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.16 (0.97%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.31. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for RF.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar. After moving higher in the prior session, the stock closed lower but above the previous day's open today, forming a bearish Harami Candle. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top and the Hanging Man which are both known as bearish patterns.
The share closed back below the 50-day moving average at 16.59. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on January 3rd, RF lost -1.13% on the following trading day. After having been unable to move above 16.61 in the prior session, the market ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 16.58.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 16.71 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 16.31 where further sell stops might get activated.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 50" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Regions Financial. Out of 89 times, RF closed higher 57.30% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.30% with an average market move of 0.83%.