RCL closes above its opening price after recovering from early selling pressure
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
RCL ended the month -3.03% lower at 50.30 after flat today on low volume, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (1.54%). Trading up to $1.82 lower after the open, the share managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. The last time this happened on June 23rd, RCL actually lost -11.26% on the following trading day. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (RCL as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $2.99 (6.03%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $5.26. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for RCL. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 45.06 and 52.46 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 49.87 (S1). After having been unable to move above 50.49 in the previous session, the market ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 50.77.
Royal Caribbean shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 54.60 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 45.06 where further sell stops might get activated.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing Low" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for Royal Caribbean. Out of 657 times, RCL closed higher 52.66% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.23% with an average market move of 1.51%.