RCL still stuck within tight trading range
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
RCL finished the week 15.19% higher at 43.14 after edging lower $0.21 (-0.48%) today, underperforming the S&P 500 (0.24%) ahead of tomorrow's Memorial Day market holiday. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (RCL as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $3.38 (7.57%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $3.66. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for RCL. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 39.71 and 45.40 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
After having been unable to move above 45.07 in the prior session, the stock ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 45.40. The last time this happened on May 12th, RCL lost -4.98% on the following trading day.
Although still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 39.71 where further sell stops might get activated. Further buying could move prices higher should the market test April's nearby high at 48.60.
Among the two market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing Low" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for Royal Caribbean. Out of 658 times, RCL closed higher 52.58% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.84% with an average market move of 1.19%.