RCL breaks above 200-day moving average for the first time since July 31st
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 13, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
RCL ended the week 5.92% higher at 114.83 after gaining $1.56 (1.38%) today, strongly outperforming the S&P 500 (-0.07%). Today's close at 114.83 marks the highest recorded closing price since July 31st. Closing above Thursday's high at 114.75, the stock confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to $0.88 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (RCL as at Sep 13, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $2.17 (1.9%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.27. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for RCL.
The share managed to close above the 200-day moving average at 114.16 for the first time since July 31st. Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 115.06 (R1), the market closed below it after spiking up to 115.63 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels importance going forward. When prices bounced off a significant resistance level the last time on August 16th, RCL actually gained 2.45% on the following trading day.
Though Royal Caribbean is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Further buying might move prices higher should the market test August's nearby high at 117.97.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bullish Break through SMA 200" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Royal Caribbean. Out of 29 times, RCL closed higher 55.17% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 65.52% with an average market move of 1.67%.