RARE closes higher for the 3rd day in a row
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 3rd day in a row, RARE finished Wednesday at 82.40 gaining $1.17 (1.44%), significantly outperforming the S&P 500 (-0.46%). Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (RARE as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been $2.51 (3.08%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $3.65. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for RARE.
The stock managed to close above the 20-day moving average at 81.44 for the first time since August 28th. After spiking up to 83.64 during the day, the share found resistance at the 50-day moving average at 82.73. The last time this happened on July 17, 2019, RARE actually gained 5.10% on the following trading day.
Ultragenyx shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
As prices are trading close to September's high at 85.16, upside momentum might accelerate should the market mark new highs for the month.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Bounce off SMA 50" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Ultragenyx. Out of 16 times, RARE closed higher 62.50% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 87.50% with an average market move of 6.84%.