RARE finds support at 20-day moving average
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
RARE finished the month 14.26% higher at 78.22 after surging $4.56 (6.19%) today on high volume, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 (1.54%). The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing above Monday's high at 77.17, the stock confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to $1.57 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (RARE as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $6.31 (8.62%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $3.86. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for RARE. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 72.43 and 78.74 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bullish Outside Bar. The last time this happened on June 19th, RARE actually lost -1.83% on the following trading day. Even with a weak opening Ultragenyx managed to close above the prior day's open and close, forming a bullish Engulfing Candle. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
After trading as low as 72.43 during the day, the share found support at the 20-day moving average at 72.85. After having been unable to move lower than 73.02 in the previous session, the market found buyers again around the same price level today at 72.43.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the 11 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bullish Bounce off SMA 20" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Ultragenyx. Out of 47 times, RARE closed higher 59.57% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.32% with an average market move of 2.09%.