RARE loses $1.77 (-2.81%) after posting weak earnings
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
RARE finished the week 1.78% higher at 61.13 after losing $1.77 (-2.81%) today, strongly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) following Thursday's earnings report. Closing below Thursday's low at 62.03, the market confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $1.63 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (RARE as at Feb 14, 2020):
RARE reported earnings of $-1.64 per share after Thursday's market close. With analysts having expected an EPS of $-1.62, Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. failed market expectations by -1.2%. The company's last earnings report was released on Nov. 5, 2019, when Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. reported earnings of $-1.96 per share failing market expectations by -14.0%.
Friday's trading range has been $3.84 (6.09%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $2.28. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently significantly lower than usual for RARE.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. The last time this happened on Tuesday, RARE actually gained 2.08% on the following trading day. Notwithstanding a strong opening the stock closed below the previous day's open and close, forming a bearish Engulfing Candle.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 63.92 (R1), Ultragenyx closed below it after spiking up to 64.24 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels importance going forward.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 59.29 where further sell stops might get activated.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Stock Earning Report based market condition "Trading Day post Earnings Report" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bearish for Ultragenyx. Out of 24 times, RARE closed lower 62.50% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred.