QLYS breaks back below 200-day moving average
Qualys Inc. (QLYS) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
QLYS finished Wednesday at 94.87 losing $3.58 (-3.64%), significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (-0.46%). Today's close at 94.87 marks the lowest recorded closing price since April 7th. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Tuesday's low at 96.30, the stock confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $1.72 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (QLYS as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been $4.60 (4.68%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $3.70. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for QLYS.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. The last time this happened on September 10th, QLYS lost -2.69% on the following trading day. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
The share closed back below the 200-day moving average at 97.29. After having been unable to move above 98.82 in the previous session, Qualys ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 99.18.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 200" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Qualys. Out of 34 times, QLYS closed higher 64.71% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 70.59% with an average market move of 2.81%.