PVH breaks below Thursday's low
PVH Corp. (PVH) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, PVH ended the month 1.27% higher at 48.66 after losing $1.52 (-3.03%) today on low volume, strongly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.77%). Closing below Thursday's low at 49.45, the market confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $1.54 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (PVH as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $2.70 (5.38%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $2.35. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for PVH.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
After trading as low as 47.91 during the day, the share found support at the 20-day moving average at 48.24. The stock closed back below the 50-day moving average at 49.90 for the first time since July 20th. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on July 20th, PVH actually gained 3.55% on the following trading day.
PVH shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "2 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for PVH. Out of 325 times, PVH closed higher 54.77% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.85% with an average market move of 0.51%.