PVH still stuck within tight trading range
PVH Corp. (PVH) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
PVH ended the month 5.67% higher at 48.05 after edging lower $0.62 (-1.27%) today on low volume, notably underperforming the S&P 500 (1.54%). Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (PVH as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $1.86 (3.83%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $3.65. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for PVH. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 44.20 and 48.93 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. After moving higher in the previous session, the share closed lower but above the prior day's open today, forming a bearish Harami Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 49.64 (R1). After having been unable to move above 48.93 in the previous session, the market ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 48.89. The last time this happened on June 26th, PVH actually gained 8.98% on the following trading day.
The stock shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 48.93 where further buy stops might get activated. Selling could speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 44.20 where further sell stops might get triggered.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Harami Candle" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for PVH. Out of 50 times, PVH closed lower 60.00% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after nine trading days, showing a win rate of 52.00% with an average market move of -0.13%.