PSX finds support at 100-day moving average
Phillips 66 (PSX) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, PSX ended the week 7.8% higher at 76.46 after edging lower $0.63 (-0.82%) today on low volume, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.24%) ahead of tomorrow's Memorial Day market holiday. Trading up to $1.19 lower after the open, the stock managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. The last time this happened on May 15th, PSX gained 7.54% on the following trading day. Ending the day with an indecisive close, neither buyers nor sellers were able to gain control during the session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (PSX as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $1.69 (2.21%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $3.63. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for PSX.
Three candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Hikkake Pattern and the Bullish Spinning Top which are both known as bullish patterns and one bearish pattern, the Hanging Man.
After trading as low as 75.15 during the day, the share found support at the 100-day moving average at 75.99. Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 76.77 (R1), Phillips 66 closed below it after spiking up to 76.84 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels importance going forward.
The market shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 79.11 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 74.11 where further sell stops might get activated.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bullish Bounce off SMA 100" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Phillips 66. Out of 15 times, PSX closed lower 60.00% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.33% with an average market move of -1.60%.