POST misses to close above 50-day moving average
Post Holdings Inc. (POST) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 11, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
POST ended the week -1.82% lower at 101.16 after surging $1.95 (1.97%) today, outperforming the S&P 500 (1.09%). This is the biggest single-day gain in over three weeks. The last time we've seen such an unusually strong single-day gain on September 16th, POST actually lost -2.28% on the following trading day. Closing above Thursday's high at 100.49, the market confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to $2.02 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (POST as at Oct 11, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $3.39 (3.39%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $2.16. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for POST.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Hikkake Pattern.
After spiking up to 102.51 during the day, the stock found resistance at the 50-day moving average at 101.63. The share found buyers again today around 99.12 for the third trading day in a row after having found demand at 99.06 in the prior session and at 98.77 two days ago.
Crossing above the lower Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their downward momentum in the short-term and might now be heading back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 104.12.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close crossed above the lower Bollinger Band" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Post Holdings. Out of 59 times, POST closed higher 52.54% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.24% with an average market move of 1.06%.