PM closes above its opening price after recovering from early selling pressure
Philip Morris International (PM) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 12, 2018
PM ended the week -2.13% lower at 82.31 after flat today, strongly underperforming the S&P 500 (1.42%). Trading up to $1.27 lower after the open, Philip Morris managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (PM as at Oct 12, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $1.68 (2.05%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $1.62. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for PM.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Takuri Line.
After trading down to 80.79 earlier during the day, the market bounced off the key technical support level at 81.59 (S1). The failure to close below the support could increase that levels significance as support going forward. The stock broke below the 20-day moving average at 82.39 today. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on August 20th, PM lost -1.24% on the following trading day.
The share shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
As prices are trading close to October's low at 80.45, downside momentum might speed up should PM mark new lows for the month.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bounced off Technical Support S1" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Philip Morris. Out of 464 times, PM closed higher 57.76% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.17% with an average market move of 0.36%.