PKG ends the day on a bearish note closing near the low of the day
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 15, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, PKG finished the week -1.25% lower at 96.18 after tanking $2.57 (-2.6%) today on high volume, strongly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.5%). This is the biggest single-day loss in over two weeks. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Ending with a weak close near the low of the day sets a bearish note for the next session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (PKG as at Mar 15, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $2.61 (2.66%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of $1.91. Weekly volatility is also higher, being above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for PKG.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Packaging closed back below the 20-day moving average at 98.43. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on March 7th, PKG lost -0.25% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Further selling could move prices lower should the market test February's nearby low at 93.32.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Down Close Near Low of Period" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Packaging. Out of 399 times, PKG closed higher 57.14% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 61.65% with an average market move of 1.32%.