PHM closes lower for the 2nd day in a row
PulteGroup Inc. (PHM) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, PHM ended the month 28.12% higher at 43.60 after edging lower $0.27 (-0.62%) today, notably underperforming the S&P 500 (0.77%). Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (PHM as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $1.35 (3.08%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.49. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for PHM.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Hanging Man.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 43.99 (R1).
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term. With its 50-day moving average crossing above its 200-day moving average, the share has entered a so-called "Golden Cross" for the first time since April 3rd. Showing increasing upward momentum in the short and medium-term the "Golden Cross" is known to indicate a potential bull market on the horizon. When the last "Golden Cross" happened on March 12, 2019, PHM actually lost -1.75% on the following trading day.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 44.98 where further buy stops might get triggered.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Golden Cross" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for PulteGroup. Out of 8 times, PHM closed lower 75.00% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 75.00% with an average market move of -3.42%.