PGR finds buyers again around 95.05
Progressive Corporation (PGR) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
PGR ended Wednesday at 95.08 flat on low volume, slightly outperforming the S&P 500 (-0.46%). The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (PGR as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been $1.20 (1.25%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.72. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for PGR.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 95.35 (R1). After having been unable to move lower than 94.94 in the previous session, the market found buyers again around the same price level today at 95.05. The last time this happened on September 11th, PGR gained 1.35% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 96.90 where further buy stops might get activated. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 94.94 where further sell stops might get triggered.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing High" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for Progressive. Out of 761 times, PGR closed higher 56.50% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 62.29% with an average market move of 0.74%.