PGR dominated by bulls lifting the market higher throughout the day
Progressive Corporation (PGR) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, PGR ended the month 3.13% higher at 80.11 after gaining $1.71 (2.18%) today, outperforming the S&P 500 (1.54%). The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing above Monday's high at 79.26, Progressive confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to $1.24 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (PGR as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $2.09 (2.66%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.42. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for PGR. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 77.18 and 80.50 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the White Candle which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Bearish Hikkake Pattern.
The stock managed to close back above the 20-day moving average at 79.52. When this moving average was crossed above the last time on June 25th, PGR actually lost -2.52% on the following trading day. Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 81.45 (R1).
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
With prices trading close to this year's high at 84.20, upside momentum might speed up should the market be able to break out to new highs for the year. Trading close to April's high at 83.83 we could see further upside momentum if potential buy stops at the level get triggered.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Hikkake Pattern" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Progressive. Out of 141 times, PGR closed higher 51.06% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 63.12% with an average market move of 0.70%.