PGR closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
Progressive Corporation (PGR) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
PGR finished the week -1.96% lower at 74.72 after edging lower $0.30 (-0.4%) today on low volume, underperforming the S&P 500 (0.24%) ahead of tomorrow's Memorial Day market holiday. Trading $0.58 higher after the open, the market was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (PGR as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $1.47 (1.96%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.20. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for PGR.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 74.08 (S1). After having been unable to move above 75.46 in the prior session, Progressive ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 75.74. The last time this happened on Tuesday, PGR lost -1.29% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 72.71 where further sell stops could get activated. As prices are trading close to May's high at 78.80, upside momentum might accelerate should the share mark new highs for the month. Further selling could move prices lower should the market test April's nearby low at 70.72.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Bearish Intraday Reversal" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Progressive. Out of 405 times, PGR closed higher 56.30% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 59.01% with an average market move of 0.78%.