PGR breaks back above 100-day moving average
Progressive Corporation (PGR) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 3rd day in a row, PGR ended Thursday at 75.82 surging $5.87 (8.39%), strongly outperforming the S&P 500 (6.24%). The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing above Wednesday's high at 72.78, the stock confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to $3.82 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (PGR as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been $6.49 (9.16%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of $4.98. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently significantly higher than usual for PGR.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
Progressive managed to close back above the 100-day moving average at 75.02 for the first time since March 17th. When this moving average was crossed above the last time on March 17th, PGR actually lost -6.65% on the following trading day. After spiking up to 76.60 during the day, the market found resistance at the 200-day moving average at 76.26.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
With prices trading close to this year's high at 84.20, upside momentum could accelerate should the share be able to break out to new highs for the year. As prices are trading close to March's high at 81.20, upside momentum might speed up should PGR mark new highs for the month.
Among the 13 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Price broke through Technical Resistance R1" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Progressive. Out of 238 times, PGR closed higher 52.10% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.30% with an average market move of 0.72%.