PGR runs into sellers again around 84.09
Progressive Corporation (PGR) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
PGR finished the week 0.61% higher at 83.77 after losing $0.09 (-0.11%) today, slightly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (PGR as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.76 (0.91%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.27. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for PGR.
After moving higher in the previous session, the stock closed lower but above the prior day's open today, forming a bearish Harami Candle. The last time this candlestick pattern showed up on January 14th, PGR actually gained 1.98% on the following trading day. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top.
After having been unable to move above 83.95 in the previous session, the market ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 84.09.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
2019's high at 84.96 is within reach and we could see further upside momentum should Progressive manage to break out beyond.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to prior High" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Progressive. Out of 593 times, PGR closed higher 53.79% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 59.70% with an average market move of 0.70%.