PGR runs into sellers again around 78.46
Progressive Corporation (PGR) Technical Analysis Report for May 17, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
PGR ended the week 5.84% higher at 77.72 after edging lower $0.13 (-0.17%) today, but still slightly outperforming the S&P 500 (-0.58%). Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (PGR as at May 17, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $1.43 (1.85%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.45. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for PGR.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bullish Outside Bar. The last time this happened on May 10th, PGR actually lost -1.21% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 77.34 (S1). After having been unable to move above 78.45 in the previous session, the stock ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 78.46.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
With prices trading close to this year's high at 78.58, upside momentum might speed up should the share be able to break out to new highs for the year.
Among the two market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to prior High" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Progressive. Out of 604 times, PGR closed higher 52.32% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 60.26% with an average market move of 0.69%.