PCAR breaks back below 20-day moving average
PACCAR Inc. (PCAR) Technical Analysis Report for Nov 09, 2018 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
PCAR finished the week 0.1% higher at 58.36 after tanking $1.79 (-2.98%) today, notably underperforming the Nasdaq 100 (-1.67%). This is the biggest single-day loss in over two weeks. Ending with a weak close near the low of the day sets a bearish note for the next session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (PCAR as at Nov 09, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $1.70 (2.86%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.74. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently significantly lower than usual for PCAR.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
The market closed back below the 20-day moving average at 58.69. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on October 4th, PCAR lost -2.72% on the following trading day.
Though the share is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Down Close Near Low of Period" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for PACCAR. Out of 408 times, PCAR closed higher 51.72% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.86% with an average market move of 0.94%.