PBCT closes within prior day's range after lackluster session
People's United Financial Inc. (PBCT) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
PBCT ended the week 1.94% higher at 16.25 after losing $0.07 (-0.43%) today on low volume, underperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (PBCT as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.14 (0.86%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.21. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for PBCT. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 16.13 and 16.34 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
After moving higher in the prior session, the market closed lower but above the previous day's open today, forming a bearish Harami Candle. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Tweezer Top. The last time a Tweezer Top showed up on April 15, 2019, PBCT gained 2.30% on the following trading day.
After trading down to 16.20 earlier during the day, People's United bounced off the key technical support level at 16.23 (S1). The failure to close below the support could increase that levels importance as support going forward. The stock closed back below the 100-day moving average at 16.28. After having been unable to move above 16.34 in the prior session, the share ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 16.34.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 16.37 where further buy stops could get triggered. Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 16.13 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Harami Candle" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for People's United. Out of 41 times, PBCT closed higher 63.41% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 65.85% with an average market move of 0.67%.