PAG breaks below Thursday's low
Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
PAG finished the week 11.37% higher at 34.09 after losing $0.71 (-2.04%) today, strongly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.24%) ahead of tomorrow's Memorial Day market holiday. Closing below Thursday's low at 34.45, the stock confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $1.30 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (PAG as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $1.65 (4.76%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.76. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for PAG.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bullish Hikkake Pattern. The last time a Bullish Hikkake Pattern showed up on May 12th, PAG actually lost -4.76% on the following trading day.
After trading as low as 33.15 during the day, the share found support at the 20-day moving average at 34.02.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 36.00 where further buy stops might get triggered. As prices are trading close to May's high at 36.41, upside momentum could speed up should Penske Automotive mark new highs for the month.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bullish Bounce off SMA 20" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Penske Automotive. Out of 63 times, PAG closed lower 53.97% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.56% with an average market move of -1.00%.