OSK runs into sellers around 85.69 for the third day in a row
Oshkosh Corporation Common Stock (OSK) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, OSK ended the week -3.55% lower at 84.13 after losing $1.05 (-1.23%) today on low volume, strongly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Today's close at 84.13 marks the lowest recorded closing price since October 28, 2019. Closing below Thursday's low at 84.50, the share confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $1.01 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (OSK as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $2.20 (2.57%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $1.99. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for OSK.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 83.21 (S1). The stock ran into sellers again today around 85.69 for the third trading day in a row after having found sellers at 85.48 in the previous session and at 85.57 two days ago. The last time this happened on January 9th, OSK lost -1.32% on the following trading day.
While still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Oshkosh. Out of 52 times, OSK closed lower 53.85% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.77% with an average market move of -0.98%.