ORG.AX runs into sellers around 7.05 for the third day in a row
Origin Energy Ltd (ORG.AX) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 11, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 7th day in a row, ORG.AX finished the week 5.75% higher at 6.99 after gaining $0.04 (0.58%) today, outperforming the ASX 50 (-0.34%). Today's close at 6.99 marks the highest recorded closing price since December 17, 2018. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (ORG.AX as at Jan 11, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $0.10 (1.44%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.21. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for ORG.AX. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 6.88 and 7.05 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Tweezer Top.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 6.89 (S1). The stock ran into sellers again today around 7.05 for the third trading day in a row after having found sellers at 7.05 in the prior session and at 7.05 two days ago. The last time this happened on November 8, 2018, ORG.AX lost -2.35% on the following trading day.
While the market is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Selling could speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 6.88 where further sell stops might get activated. Further buying could move prices higher should the market test December's close-by high at 7.21.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to previous High" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for Origin Energy. Out of 499 times, ORG.AX closed lower 49.30% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 50.30% with an average market move of -0.04%.