OLLI pops to highest close since January 24th
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. (OLLI) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 4th day in a row, OLLI finished the week 13.75% higher at 56.18 after gaining $1.83 (3.37%) today on high volume, notably outperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Today's close at 56.18 marks the highest recorded closing price since January 24th. Trading $0.82 higher after the open, Ollie's Bargain was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on January 30th, OLLI lost -4.21% on the following trading day. Ending the day with an indecisive close, neither buyers nor sellers were able to gain control during the session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (OLLI as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $2.03 (3.6%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.06. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for OLLI.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top.
After trading down to 55.13 earlier during the day, the market bounced off the key technical support level at 55.53 (S1). The failure to close below the support could increase that levels significance as support going forward.
Though the stock is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bounced off Technical Support S1" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Ollie's Bargain. Out of 193 times, OLLI closed higher 62.18% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 63.73% with an average market move of 1.77%.