OLLI dominated by bears dragging the market lower throughout the day
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. (OLLI) Technical Analysis Report for Dec 02, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, OLLI finished Monday at 58.99 tanking $6.41 (-9.8%) on high volume, notably underperforming the S&P 500 (-0.86%). This is the biggest single-day loss in over three months. Today's close at 58.99 marks the lowest recorded closing price since October 14th. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Ending with a weak close near the low of the day sets a bearish note for the next session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (OLLI as at Dec 02, 2019):
Monday's trading range has been $3.54 (5.73%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $1.91. Weekly volatility is also higher, being above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for OLLI.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle. The last time a Black Candle showed up on November 22nd, OLLI actually gained 4.24% on the following trading day.
The stock closed below the 50-day moving average at 62.31 for the first time since October 24th.
Crossing below the lower Bollinger Band for the first time since November 22nd, prices have shown unusually strong downward momentum in the short-term. This might either indicate a potential selling climax after which prices could head back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 64.54 or signal the beginning of a strong momentum breakout leading to even lower prices.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the 14 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 50" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Ollie's Bargain. Out of 32 times, OLLI closed higher 62.50% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 75.00% with an average market move of 1.99%.