NVS dominated by bears dragging the market lower throughout the day
Novartis AG (NVS) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
NVS ended Wednesday at 89.85 losing $1.15 (-1.26%) on high volume, underperforming the S&P 500 (-0.46%). The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Tuesday's low at 90.87, the share confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $1.19 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NVS as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been $2.59 (2.81%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $1.34. Weekly volatility is also higher, being above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for NVS.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. The last time this happened on September 3rd, NVS lost -0.48% on the following trading day. Despite a strong opening the market closed below the previous day's open and close, forming a bearish Engulfing Candle. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Belt-hold and the Black Candle which are both known as bearish patterns.
After trading down to 89.68 earlier during the day, Novartis AG bounced off the key technical support level at 89.80 (S1). The failure to close below the support might increase that levels significance as support going forward.
Crossing below the upper Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their upward momentum in the short-term and could now be heading back down towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 87.64.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bounced off Technical Support S1" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Novartis AG. Out of 381 times, NVS closed higher 58.79% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.53% with an average market move of 0.55%.