NVR closes higher for the 2nd day in a row
NVR Inc. (NVR) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, NVR finished the month 1.15% higher at 3258.75 after gaining $67.98 (2.13%) today, outperforming the S&P 500 (1.54%). The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing above Monday's high at 3210.42, the share confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to $59.58 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NVR as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $75.12 (2.35%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $126.98. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for NVR.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Short Candle and the White Candle which are both known as bullish patterns. The last time a Bullish Short Candle showed up on May 27th, NVR actually lost -3.88% on the following trading day.
The stock managed to close back above the 100-day moving average at 3189.22 for the first time since June 23rd. Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 3320.00 (R1).
The market shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 3320.00 where further buy stops might get activated. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 3113.70 where further sell stops might get triggered. As prices are trading close to June's low at 3050.00, downside momentum could speed up should NVR mark new lows for the month.
Among the 11 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing Low" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for NVR. Out of 700 times, NVR closed higher 54.71% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 61.43% with an average market move of 1.28%.