NVDA dominated by bears dragging the market lower throughout the day
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) Technical Analysis Report for Apr 12, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, NVDA finished the week -0.49% lower at 190.01 after losing $1.53 (-0.8%) today, strongly underperforming the Nasdaq 100 (0.44%). The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NVDA as at Apr 12, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $3.53 (1.83%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $5.07. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for NVDA. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 187.56 and 193.47 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar. Even with a strong opening the share closed below the prior day's open and close, forming a bearish Engulfing Candle. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Short Candle and the Black Candle which are both known as bearish patterns.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 192.80 (R1). The stock found buyers again today around 189.66 for the third trading day in a row after having found demand at 189.55 in the previous session and at 189.05 two days ago. The last time this happened on March 5th, NVDA actually lost -2.86% on the following trading day.
While still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 193.47 where further buy stops might get activated. Selling could speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 187.56 where further sell stops might get triggered.
Among the 13 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Short Candle" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for NVIDIA. Out of 70 times, NVDA closed higher 58.57% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 72.86% with an average market move of 4.04%.