NVDA unable to break through key resistance level
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 12, 2018
NVDA ended the week -8.64% lower at 246.54 after surging $11.41 (4.85%) today, significantly outperforming the Nasdaq 100 (2.77%). Trading up to $5.84 lower after the open, the share managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. The last time this happened on Tuesday, NVDA actually lost -7.48% on the following trading day. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NVDA as at Oct 12, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $9.87 (4.02%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $8.06. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently strongly higher than usual for NVDA.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 247.62 (R1), the market closed below it after spiking up to 249.54 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels importance going forward.
Crossing above the lower Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their downward momentum in the short-term and might now be heading back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 268.32.
While still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Close to R1 Resistance" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for NVIDIA. Out of 1,281 times, NVDA closed higher 50.98% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.55% with an average market move of 2.16%.