NOV closes within previous day's range after lackluster session
National Oilwell Varco Inc. (NOV) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, NOV ended the week 4.95% higher at 12.09 after edging lower $0.03 (-0.25%) today, slightly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.24%) ahead of tomorrow's Memorial Day market holiday. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NOV as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.47 (3.93%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.82. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for NOV.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top.
After trading down to 11.80 earlier during the day, the market bounced off the key technical support level at 11.81 (S1). The failure to close below the support could increase that levels importance as support going forward. When prices bounced off a significant support level the last time on April 30th, NOV actually lost -7.44% on the following trading day.
The stock shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 13.00 where further buy stops could get triggered. As prices are trading close to May's high at 13.33, upside momentum might accelerate should the share mark new highs for the month.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bounced off Technical Support S1" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for National Oilwell. Out of 407 times, NOV closed higher 56.02% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after nine trading days, showing a win rate of 49.88% with an average market move of -0.06%.