NOV closes above its opening price after recovering from early selling pressure
National Oilwell Varco Inc. (NOV) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
NOV finished Thursday at 11.25 gaining $0.23 (2.09%), notably underperforming the S&P 500 (6.24%). Trading up to $0.51 lower after the open, the market managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. The last time this happened on March 17th, NOV actually lost -10.08% on the following trading day. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NOV as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been $0.87 (7.77%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.40. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for NOV. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 9.68 and 11.81 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top.
While National Oilwell is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 11.81 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 10.18 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "RSI(2) above 80" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for National Oilwell. Out of 274 times, NOV closed higher 50.73% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after two trading days, showing a win rate of 55.47% with an average market move of -0.04%.