NOV finds buyers at key support level
National Oilwell Varco Inc. (NOV) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 16, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 4th day in a row, NOV finished Tuesday at 21.33 losing $0.17 (-0.79%), slightly underperforming the S&P 500 (-0.34%). Trading $0.49 higher after the open, the stock was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on July 12th, NOV lost -2.01% on the following trading day. Closing below Monday's low at 21.35, the share confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $0.12 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NOV as at Jul 16, 2019):
Tuesday's trading range has been $0.70 (3.26%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.55. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for NOV.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. After spiking up to 21.93 during the day, National Oilwell has been sold off at those price levels and formed a bearish Pin Bar closing $0.60 below today's high.
After trading down to 21.23 earlier during the day, the market bounced off the key technical support level at 21.30 (S1). The failure to close below the support might increase that levels importance as support going forward. After having been unable to move above 21.85 in the prior session, NOV ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 21.93.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "4 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for National Oilwell. Out of 74 times, NOV closed lower 59.46% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.41% with an average market move of -0.07%.