NI stuck within tight trading range
NiSource Inc (NI) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
NI ended Wednesday at 22.26 gaining $0.15 (0.68%) on high volume, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 (-0.46%). Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NI as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been $0.42 (1.9%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.51. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for NI. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 22.00 and 22.62 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar. After moving lower in the prior session, the market managed to close higher but below the previous day's open, forming a bullish Harami Candle. The last time this candlestick pattern showed up on August 12th, NI actually lost -1.62% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 22.00 (S1). Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 22.62 (R1).
While the share is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 22.62 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 22.00 where further sell stops could get triggered. As prices are trading close to September's high at 22.87, upside momentum might accelerate should NiSource mark new highs for the month.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing Low" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for NiSource. Out of 649 times, NI closed higher 56.39% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 63.79% with an average market move of 0.90%.