NI snaps to lowest close since March 8th
NiSource Inc (NI) Technical Analysis Report for Apr 18, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 4th day in a row, NI finished Thursday at 27.56 losing $0.03 (-0.11%), slightly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.16%) ahead of tomorrow's Good Friday market holiday. Today's close at 27.56 marks the lowest recorded closing price since March 8th. Trading $0.16 higher after the open, NiSource was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NI as at Apr 18, 2019):
Thursday's trading range has been $0.21 (0.76%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.35. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for NI.
The market closed below the 50-day moving average at 27.56 for the first time since February 20th. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on February 20th, NI actually gained 0.61% on the following trading day. After having been unable to move above 27.73 in the previous session, the stock ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 27.76.
Although the share is currently in a short-term downtrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 27.45 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing Low" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for NiSource. Out of 643 times, NI closed higher 57.39% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 66.41% with an average market move of 1.17%.