NHF.AX closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
Nib Holdings Limited (NHF.AX) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 15, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
NHF.AX finished the week -3.85% lower at 5.50 after flat today, slightly outperforming the ASX 200 (-0.07%). Trading $0.08 higher after the open, the market was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NHF.AX as at Mar 15, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $0.10 (1.81%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.16. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for NHF.AX. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 5.47 and 5.59 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
After spiking up to 5.59 during the day, the stock found resistance at the 200-day moving average at 5.57. The last time this happened on February 5th, NHF.AX actually gained 1.82% on the following trading day.
While the share is currently in a short-term downtrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 5.47 where further sell stops could get activated. Further selling might move prices lower should the market test February's close-by low at 5.28.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Close near low of period" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Nib Holdings. Out of 468 times, NHF.AX closed higher 52.78% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.97% with an average market move of 1.38%.