NHF.AX enters Golden Cross for the first time since March 14, 2016
Nib Holdings Limited (NHF.AX) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 12, 2018
NHF.AX finished the week -6.06% lower at 5.43 after gaining $0.04 (0.74%) today, outperforming the market (ASX 200, 0.2%). Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NHF.AX as at Oct 12, 2018):
Friday's trading range was $0.14 (2.61%), that's slightly above last trading month's daily average range of $0.13. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the markets average with the monthly volatility being slightly above average.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 5.48, the share closed below it after spiking as high as 5.50 during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels importance as resistance going forward. After having been unable to move above 5.49 in the previous session, the stock ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 5.50. The last time this happened on October 8th, NHF.AX lost -3.19% on the following trading day.
Crossing above the lower Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their downward momentum in the short-term and could now be heading back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 5.75.
Although still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already. With its 50-day moving average crossing above its 200-day moving average, Nib Holdings has entered a so-called "Golden Cross" for the first time since March 14, 2016 today. Showing increasing upward momentum in the short and medium-term the "Golden Cross" is known to indicate a potential bull market on the horizon.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 5.30 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the six market conditions that our engine recognized today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based condition "Golden Cross" stands out. Though it is usually interpreted being bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish so far in the past for Nib Holdings. Out of 5 times during the last ten years, NHF.AX closed lower 80.00% of the time on the next trading day. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 60.00% with an average market move of -1.45%.