NCM.AX pushes through 50-day moving average
Newcrest Mining Ltd (NCM.AX) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 12, 2018 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
NCM.AX ended the week 1.74% higher at 19.93 after surging $0.63 (3.26%) today on high volume. This is the biggest single-day gain in over a week. Today's close at 19.93 marks the highest recorded closing price since August 23rd. Ending the day with an indecisive close, neither buyers nor sellers were able to gain control during the session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NCM.AX as at Oct 12, 2018):
Friday's trading range was $0.30 (1.51%), that's below last trading month's daily average range of $0.37. Things look different on a weekly scale, where volatility is above the markets average with the monthly volatility being slightly below average.
Four candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Morning Star which is known as bullish pattern, two bearish patterns, the Gravestone Doji and the Northern Doji and one neutral pattern, the Doji.
Prices are trading close to a key support level at 19.70. Prices are trading close to the key resistance level at 20.22.
Crossing above the upper Bollinger Band for the first time since April 23rd, prices have reached an unusually high price in the short-term. This might either indicate a potential turning point back down towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 19.50 or signal a strong momentum breakout leading to even higher prices.
Though Newcrest Mining is experiencing a short-term up trend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long term trends are still in negative territory. The market managed to break above the 50-day moving average at 19.82 today for the first time since August 14th. The last time this happened on August 14th, NCM.AX lost -2.12% on the following trading day.
Among the 15 market conditions that our engine recognized today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based condition "Northern Doji" stands out. While it is usually interpreted being bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish so far in the past for Newcrest Mining. Out of 53 times during the last ten years, NCM.AX closed higher 62.26% of the time on the next trading day. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after eight trading days, showing a win rate of 52.83% with an average market move of 0.16%.