NCLH breaks below Thursday's low
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, NCLH finished the month -16.98% lower at 13.64 after losing $0.53 (-3.74%) today, strongly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.77%). Closing below Thursday's low at 13.78, Norwegian Cruise confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $0.32 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NCLH as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.64 (4.57%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.02. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for NCLH.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Short Candle and the Black Candle which are both known as bearish patterns. The last time a Black Candle showed up on Monday, NCLH actually gained 6.28% on the following trading day.
The stock shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 14.52 where further buy stops could get triggered. Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 13.26 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Short Candle" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for Norwegian Cruise. Out of 52 times, NCLH closed lower 55.77% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after two trading days, showing a win rate of 59.62% with an average market move of 0.33%.