NCLH runs into sellers around 16.58 for the third day in a row
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
NCLH ended the month 4.92% higher at 16.43 after edging lower $0.13 (-0.79%) today on low volume, strongly underperforming the S&P 500 (1.54%). Trading up to $0.64 lower after the open, the stock managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NCLH as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $1.01 (6.23%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.01. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for NCLH. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 14.50 and 17.25 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar.
Norwegian Cruise ran into sellers again today around 16.58 for the third trading day in a row after having found sellers at 16.66 in the previous session and at 16.40 two days ago. The last time this happened on June 19th, NCLH lost -6.20% on the following trading day.
The share shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 16.66 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 14.61 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing Low" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for Norwegian Cruise. Out of 523 times, NCLH closed higher 51.82% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.60% with an average market move of 1.57%.