NCLH closes within previous day's range
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
NCLH finished the week 27.29% higher at 13.90 after losing $0.13 (-0.93%) today, notably underperforming the S&P 500 (0.24%) ahead of tomorrow's Memorial Day market holiday. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NCLH as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $1.28 (8.7%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.48. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for NCLH.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle. The last time a Black Candle showed up on May 13th, NCLH actually gained 4.36% on the following trading day.
While still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
As prices are trading close to May's high at 15.74, upside momentum might speed up should the stock mark new highs for the month.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Black Candle" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Norwegian Cruise. Out of 393 times, NCLH closed higher 49.36% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.67% with an average market move of 0.23%.