NCLH closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
NCLH ended Thursday at 15.71 losing $1.25 (-7.37%) on high volume, strongly underperforming the S&P 500 (6.24%). Trading $3.48 higher after the open, the stock was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on March 20th, NCLH actually gained 10.89% on the following trading day. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NCLH as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been $5.28 (31.43%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $3.48. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for NCLH.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Shooting Star.
After spiking up to 20.28 during the day, the market found resistance at the 20-day moving average at 18.65.
While Norwegian Cruise is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Bounce off SMA 20" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for Norwegian Cruise. Out of 39 times, NCLH closed lower 61.54% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after three trading days, showing a win rate of 56.41% with an average market move of -0.12%.